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What New Changes is The Global Mobile Communications Market Experiencing In 2024?

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2023 is over. Looking back on the global mobile communications market this year, if I were asked to sum it up in one word, it would be – “accumulation and gain.”
On the surface, it doesn’t seem like anything significant is happening. But, under the calm lake surface, rough waves and storms exist.
 Whether in the consumer Internet field or the industrial Internet field, communication networks are growing rapidly. There are increasingly digital application scenarios surrounding the network, and network traffic is also increasing rapidly.
 High-quality networks represented by 5G not only bring people a pleasant digital life experience but also promote the digital transformation wave of the entire industry.
 Not long ago, Ericsson released the latest “Ericsson Mobile Market Report (November 2023)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). This Ericsson report is released every six months and analyzes the current status and development of the global mobile market. The data is very detailed and an essential research reference for the ICT industry.

Changes in the global mobile communications market in 2024

Next, based on my observations and the “Report” data, I will introduce the overall trends of the global mobile communications market in 2023 and the development of hot areas such as 5G, FWA, and the Internet of Things.

1. Global 5G Trend: Steady Growth with Frequent Highlights

changes in the global mobile communications market in 2024
Global 5G- Steady growth with frequent highlights
Let’s look at the global 5G development from a higher perspective.
 According to the data provided by the report, about 280 operators worldwide have launched 5G commercial services. In 2023, the number of global 5G subscriptions increased by nearly 600 million and is expected to reach 1.6 billion by the end of the year, accounting for 18% of the total mobile subscriptions.
 By 2029, the number of global 5G contracts is expected to exceed 5.3 billion, accounting for 58%. By the end of 2023, global 5G population coverage will reach 45% and is expected to increase to approximately 85% by 2029.
Development trend of mobile subscriptions by technology
Source: “Ericsson Mobile Market Report (November 2023)”
 Based on these data, we can see that the development momentum of 5G is very strong, and the penetration rate is constantly increasing.
 Mobile Internet traffic-based services (games, videos, live broadcasts, etc.) have promoted people’s demand for high-performance mobile phone connections. As the most advanced mobile communication technology standard, 5G has absolute advantages in spectrum efficiency, network indicators, etc., and is the first choice for global operators to build networks.

Several details are worthy of attention in the development wave of 5G.

In addition to high speed, 5G’s low latency, high reliability, large connection characteristics, and support for network slicing have strong appeal to the industry Internet market. Operators choose 5G to lay the foundation for exploring the government and enterprise markets, creating new sources of revenue, and obtaining more return on investment.

 1. First, 5G construction has accelerated significantly in economically underdeveloped areas.

5G network construction requires a large amount of investment. We have always believed that only economically developed countries and regions will actively build 5G.

But, according to data, the popularity of 5G in many economically underdeveloped areas is accelerating significantly. Taking sub-Saharan Africa as an example, according to data from the “Report,” the annual growth rate of 5G contracts in the region will reach 60% between 2023 and 2029.

Number of mobile subscriptions in sub-Saharan Africa

 

In the context of tight funds and high inflation, the region can develop at such a high speed because the demand from the user side is robust.
 Young people dominate the area, the community is more vibrant, and it has enormous economic development potential. They need digital technology to bridge the digital divide, which can activate the economy and trade and improve deficiencies in education, medical care, and other aspects. The digital dividends brought by cutting-edge digital technologies such as 5G will significantly improve local living standards and maintain the stable development of the region. Therefore, it has received strong support from the local and national governments and provided financial and spectrum support.

2. Secondly, there is a substantial rise in 5G FWA applications.

FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) services have been a growth highlight of the global mobile communications market in the past few years.
 As an important supplement and substitute for wired optical fiber broadband, FWA can help operators quickly implement customer-oriented broadband business services. FWA is based on 5G, has greater improvements in bandwidth rate and capacity, and is more suitable for providing high-quality network connections to users in the region. Many people even believe that FWA has become the most typical application scenario of 5G.
 The data and opinions from the “Report” also fully illustrate the recognition of global operators’ commercial value of FWA:
 About 80% of mobile operators worldwide have begun to provide FWA services. 121 operators are providing 5G FWA services. 5G FWA CPE shipments are expected to increase by 86% in 2023, reaching 13.89 million units, accounting for more than 48% of total shipments.
 By the end of 2029, the number of FWA connections is expected to increase to 330 million. Among them, nearly 85% is expected to come from 5G FWA.

3. The Trend of 5G Deployment Technology Routes.

There are two significant technology trends in global 5G deployment. One is that the mid-frequency band has received increased attention, and the other is that the proportion of 5G SA networking has increased.
 
After several years of network construction verification, mid-band is the best choice for providing a 5G experience. This frequency band not only has good coverage capabilities but is more in line with the needs of operators for network construction.
 Globally, more and more operators are building 5G networks based on mid-band. By the end of 2023, global 5G mid-band population coverage will reach 30%.
Regarding 5G SA/NSA networking, the current global 5G network is mainly based on NSA (non-standalone) networking. Among the 280 5G operators worldwide, only 40 have deployed or launched 5G SA (independent) networking in public networks.
NSA cannot fully leverage the advantages of 5G, including support for 5G native voice (VoNR), network slicing, and other services. NSA is also far inferior to SA regarding network resource control capabilities, including clear QoS and enhanced service customization capabilities.
 To fully unleash the energy of 5G, global operators have begun to accelerate the transformation from NSA to SA. The overall proportion of 5G SA networks will increase significantly.

2. Cellular Internet of Things: The Old and the New Change, the Landscape Changes

The Internet of Things is another global mobile communications market highlight in 2023.
” Internet of Everything” is an important prerequisite for building a digital society. Only when the terminal can connect is when it can become a nerve-ending node in the digital world. This will enable it to feedback data and receive control.
 In the past few years, we have seen that with the support of various communication technologies, the number of global IoT connections has grown rapidly. In various fields such as smart homes, industrial manufacturing, transportation and logistics, energy, and electricity, the Internet of Things is increasingly essential and creates enormous value.
 Many of these connections come from cellular IoT connections, especially large-scale IoT technologies represented by NB-IoT/Cat-M.
 These technologies are widely used worldwide and feature low complexity, low cost, and long battery life.
 The “Report” shows that 128 operators have deployed or launched NB-IoT commercial networks globally, and 60 have launched Cat-M. The total number of cellular IoT connections is expected to reach approximately 3 billion by the end of 2023.
Development trend in the number of cellular IoT connections in billions
 As 2G/3G networks are gradually withdrawn globally, the proportion of global cellular IoT connection types will also change. The 3GPP R18 version is about to be officially frozen, and a new type of cellular IoT technology, lightweight 5G-RedCap, will be fully commercialized.
RedCap has attracted a lot of attention over the past year. It has a connection rate close to LTE Cat.4 but has lower latency and higher energy and spectrum efficiency. In addition, it supports features such as enhanced positioning and network slicing, which are advantages that users in vertical industries value very much.
RedCap helps achieve a balance between costs and benefits. The “Report” also predicts that it will be fully commercialized in 2024 and widely used in wearable devices, low-cost routers, cameras, high-end meters, FWA devices, and other scenarios.

3 Green and low carbon: industry consensus and promising goals

The last trend I want to discuss is the green development of ICT infrastructure.
ICT infrastructure is the prerequisite for developing the digital economy and promoting digital transformation. 
We see these facilities’ role in enabling industrial upgrading, but we cannot ignore the carbon emission costs behind them.
 Currently, the ICT industry consumes approximately 4% of global electricity during the use phase, equivalent to approximately 1.4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020. In 2020, the ICT industry’s carbon footprint was estimated at 763 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
 If we want humanity to develop sustainably, we must pay attention to the carbon emissions issue in the ICT industry and strive to reduce our carbon footprint.
 Fortunately, the ICT industry has already begun to take action. For example, increase the proportion of renewable energy use, introduce more advanced technical standards, replace old high-energy-consuming technologies, adopt new energy-saving materials and technologies, etc.
 
These actions have effectively slowed down the growth of carbon emissions and reduced the carbon footprint of each ICT contract.
 The “Report” gives an optimistic forecast for the carbon footprint of the ICT industry in 2030 – although overall electricity consumption will inevitably increase, carbon emissions will decrease. The goal of net-zero emissions is not unattainable but very promising.

Conclusion

Overall, we can see that the global mobile communications market is still developing at its own pace. The construction of 5G and other infrastructure is advancing orderly. The popularity and penetration rate of the Internet are also continuing to rise.
 Network construction is a long-term process. When we build a good network, we are setting up a stage to serve applications and innovation. The continued evolution of 5G is bound to make this stage more perfect, thereby promoting the next wave of innovation.
 Researching digital technology, promoting digital infrastructure, and developing digital applications are the long-term missions of the entire ICT industry, and they are also arduous tasks. Looking towards 2024, what kind of excitement will the ICT industry bring? Let us wait and see!

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